拉斯维加斯9888

利用经济学汇报系列 (1112-1)

标题：China's One-Child Policy, Fertility, and the 1.5 Child Policy

汇报人：陈景祺（北京大学经济学院）

功夫：2:00-3:30pm, September 13

地址：拉斯维加斯9888新楼217教室

Abstract:

The one-child policy in China is characterized by exceptions that vary across regions and time. In the second half of the 1980s, some provinces began to allow rural families to have a second child without sanctions if their first child is a girl. Using provincial data from 1979 to 2000, I examine the effect of the “1.5-child policy” on fertility behavior. Despite the large proportion of the population potentially eligible for the exception, I find that the policy had weak overall effects on crude birth rates. It had stronger effects on the proportion of higher-order births among new births. In addition, in poorer areas, the policy’s effect on crude birth rates is larger but its effect on higher-order births is smaller.

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